THREAT REPORTS
The 2025–2026 Riots in Iran: From Economic Protest to Political Challenge
The 2025–2026 unrest in Iran began as economically driven protests rooted in inflation, currency collapse, water scarcity, and declining living standards, but rapidly evolved into a nationwide political challenge to the state. What started in traditional bazaars spread across most provinces, drawing in diverse social groups and escalating into sustained confrontations with security forces. Heavy repression, internet and communications shutdowns, mass arrests, and at least 45 reported deaths in the first ten days failed to restore stability, instead deepening public anger and mistrust. By early 2026, the persistence, scale, and human cost of the demonstrations underscored a profound legitimacy crisis for the Islamic Republic, revealing the limits of coercion in addressing structural economic, environmental, and governance failures.
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Venezuela: Suden Vacuum
The removal of Nicolás Maduro constituted a profound shock to Venezuela’s political system but did not produce immediate systemic collapse. Power consolidated around coercive institutions, resulting in a tense post-operation period defined by repression, elite bargaining, and economic disruption. The trajectory of instability was driven less by mass public sentiment than by elite calculations over survival, immunity, and control. Strategically, the operation aligned with Donald Trump’s broader objective of reasserting U.S. primacy across the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela was treated as both a political challenge and a strategic asset. U.S. policy following the operation sought to curtail extra-hemispheric influence, reinforce American leadership throughout the Americas, and reshape regional alignment under clear U.S. dominance. Energy considerations were central to this approach. Venezuela holds an estimated 20 percent of global proven oil reserves, much of them previously inaccessible due to sanctions, mismanagement, and infrastructure decay. Securing favorable access to these reserves through a compliant post-Maduro authority, revised sanctions regimes, or restructured concessions carried significant implications for global energy markets and U.S. strategic leverage. In this context, Maduro’s removal functioned as a catalyst within a broader effort to reconfigure political control, economic access, and strategic balance across the Americas.
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The U.S.–Venezuela Showdown in the Caribbean
The Caribbean basin has entered a period of heightened geopolitical tension as the United States dramatically expands its military operations aimed at disrupting narcotics trafficking networks linked to Venezuela. What began as an intensified counter-drug campaign has evolved into a broader show of force, raising questions across the region about whether Washington is pursuing deterrence, coercive leverage, or preparing the ground for a more consequential military confrontation with Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian government. According to recent reports, President Donald Trump has additionally authorized the CIA to carry out operations inside Venezuela-- an action that further increases regional concerns about covert escalation pathways and the risk of retaliatory spirals.
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