15
YEARS OF
PROPRIETARY
K&R DATA
73K+
GLOBAL
THREAT EVENTS
DATASET
100+
REPORTS AND
INFOGRAPHICS
PER YEAR
192
REAL-TIME
MONITORED
COUNTRIES
MARCH 01, 2026
UNITED STATES
At about 1:58 am local time, a gunman opened fire near Buford’s Backyard Beer Garden on West Sixth Street in downtown Austin, Texas. The area is popular with nightlife patrons and university students. The shooter, who reportedly wore clothing bearing the words 'Property of Allah' and an Iranian flag emblem, was later identified by law enforcement sources as 53-year-old Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized U.S. citizen originally from Senegal. He drove a large SUV around the area before stopping and firing into crowds with a handgun from his vehicle, then continued to fire with a rifle after exiting the vehicle. Responding officers engaged the suspect and fatally shot him at the scene. Two people were killed in the attack and 14 were wounded, three of them critically. The Federal Bureau of Investigation has joined the investigation, with officials stating they found indicators on the suspect and in his vehicle suggesting a potential link to terrorism, though authorities cautioned that it is too early to determine the motive and that the investigation is ongoing.
FEBRUARY 28, 2026
IRAN
At around 9:30 am local time, the United States and Israel launched major coordinated aerial, and missile strikes on Iran following the collapse of diplomatic talks in Geneva, Switzerland. According to US and Israeli officials, the strikes targeted Iranian officials, military infrastructure, missile storage and launch facilities, air defense systems, and other sites associated with Iran’s security apparatus. Explosions were reported in and around Tehran, Isfahan, Natanz, Tabriz, Kermanshah, Qom, and other cities. Casualty numbers among Iranian security forces were not immediately known, but initial estimates were in the hundreds.
Iran acknowledged damage to military and governmental installations, issued condemnations, and vowed to retaliate. Within hours of the initial attacks, Iran launched a wide retaliatory campaign of ballistic missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, declaring that all United States and Israeli military assets in the region were legitimate targets.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said missiles were fired at multiple countries hosting US forces. Bahrain reported that its air defense systems intercepted missiles targeting the headquarters of the United States Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Most locations saw successful interceptions, with limited verified physical damage to facilities. The IRGC attacks also targeted civilian installations, including Kuwait International Airport, a residential building in Manama, Bahrain, and the Fairmont Hotel Dubai on Palm Jumeirah, where one individual was killed.
Governments in the affected countries condemned the missile strikes as violations of sovereignty and called for restraint and a return to diplomatic engagement, even as they strengthened defensive postures and continued to assess damage and casualties.
Air defense systems in Jordan and other Gulf states also engaged incoming missiles, with no confirmed casualties reported there. Iran also launched missiles at Israeli territory, triggering nationwide air defense alerts and interceptions. Israeli officials reported incoming projectiles resulting in limited structural damage and no fatalities. Regional airports temporarily closed airspace amid the escalation as governments issued safety warnings.
The situation remained highly fluid, with ongoing exchanges and a continued risk of further escalation depending on additional military actions and any diplomatic efforts in the coming days.
FEBRUARY 28, 2026
IRAN
Israeli officials claimed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial wave of coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes targeting his compound in Tehran, though neither Iranian authorities nor the United States confirmed his death. According to Israeli media outlets, photos of his body being evacuated from the compound were shown to Prime Minister Netanyahu, who shared them with President Trump. Footage circulating online showed missiles striking near the compound, but Iranian state media did not immediately verify his status, leaving uncertainty over the fate of the 86-year-old leader. Hours later, speaking to reporters, President Trump confirmed on social media that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed, adding it was “the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country.” The reported killing would mark a dramatic escalation in the conflict and a historic turning point for Iran’s leadership, as officials in Tehran vowed a crushing response while international observers awaited formal confirmation of Khamenei’s condition.
FEBRUARY 26, 2026
CUBA
At around 11 am local time, a firefight between a Cuban Border Guard vessel and the occupants of a Florida-registered speedboat took place off Cuba’s north-central coast near the barrier island of Cayo Falcones in Villa Clara province. Cuban officials said the U.S.-flagged speedboat, identified by registration number FL7726SH, approached within about one nautical mile of the El Pino channel without authorization, prompting the Cuban patrol, with five crew members aboard, to attempt identification. Cuban authorities alleged that those aboard the speedboat opened fire first, wounding the commander of the Cuban patrol vessel, after which the border guards returned fire. In the ensuing exchange of gunfire, four people on the speedboat were killed and six others were wounded and evacuated from the scene to a local hospital. The Cuban patrol commander was also reported wounded. Cuba’s Interior Ministry said it was investigating the circumstances and sought to reaffirm its determination to protect its territorial waters and national sovereignty. U.S. officials did not immediately provide public comment on the incident, and Florida political figures called for independent investigations to determine whether any of the victims were U.S. citizens or legal residents, underscoring heightened tensions between Havana and Washington.
FEBRUARY 22, 2026
MEXICO
At about 8:00 a.m. local time, Mexican security forces closed in on Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, during an operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. He was gravely wounded in the clash and died during an air transfer to Mexico City. His death triggered near immediate, coordinated retaliation by cartel cells across multiple states.
Within hours, CJNG gunmen erected roadblocks on major highways, set vehicles and businesses on fire, and launched attacks across Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Nayarit, Guanajuato, Tamaulipas and other states. Clashes were reported around major hotspots included the Guadalajara metropolitan area, including Zapopan, and the tourist corridor around Puerto Vallarta near transport hubs.
In Guanajuato state, early attacks and arson were reported in León, Silao, Purísima, San Francisco del Rincón and Guanajuato City, including damage to convenience stores in León’s Las Joyas area and in neighborhoods such as Delta 2000 and Los Naranjos. Puebla also reported arson, including an incident at a Banco del Bienestar site in Santa María Xonacatepec and fires at Oxxo stores in Puebla city.
Authorities in multiple states announced precautionary school and education centers closures in response to the violence and roadblocks. In person classes were suspended in Jalisco, Estado de México, Nayarit, Baja California, Colima, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, Puebla, Querétaro and parts of Oaxaca, including the Istmo region, citing security concerns and mobility disruptions.
Numerous roadblock points were reported around Guadalajara, Jalisco state capital, as well as fires and security disruptions extending to ports and bus terminals. Disruptions were reported in Manzanillo, and preventive transport suspensions affected routes from Toluca and Ciudad Guzmán. Airlines and aviation authorities reported fast moving operational impacts at airports serving Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, with Air Canada and United halting flights to Puerto Vallarta, additional cancellations by American Airlines, and operational warnings and cancellations from Volaris and Aeromexico tied to the unrest.
Mexico Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch confirmed that 25 National Guard members were killed in six retaliatory attacks in Jalisco, along with a prison guard, a state prosecutor’s agent and an unidentified woman, bringing confirmed non cartel deaths to 28. Security officials stated that around 30 suspected criminals were killed in Jalisco and four in Michoacán. In Tapalpa, four individuals were killed at the scene of the initial military operation and three wounded, including Oseguera, later died. Authorities in Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato also reported at least 14 additional deaths, including seven National Guard members. Combined fatalities linked to the violence exceed 70, pending final official confirmation.
Financial losses have not yet been consolidated into a single official figure but are described as severe, with widespread arson, commercial closures, airport disruption, transport paralysis and logistics interruptions producing substantial multi sector impact.
The security environment for foreigners, particularly Americans, deteriorated sharply. Mexican and U.S. officials acknowledged U.S. intelligence support to the operation, including assistance from a U.S. military led counter cartel task force, a factor analysts warned could heighten risks to U.S. linked targets during retaliatory flare ups. The U.S. State Department issued shelter in place messaging for Americans in affected areas including Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Guerrero and Nuevo León, while Canada advised its citizens in Puerto Vallarta to shelter in place and maintain a low profile.
The scale and geographic breadth of the CJNG retaliation undermines Mexico’s international standing and is likely to intensify global concern, particularly as Guadalajara, one of the designated host cities for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, served as the epicenter of the violence. The incident will remain prominent in travelers’ risk calculations and may prompt scrutiny of the city’s preparedness as a tournament host.