ThreatRate Reports January 2026
Venezuela: Suden Vacuum
Geopolitical
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The removal of Nicolás Maduro constituted a profound shock to Venezuela’s political system but did not produce immediate systemic collapse. Power consolidated around coercive institutions, resulting in a tense post-operation period defined by repression, elite bargaining, and economic disruption. The trajectory of instability was driven less by mass public sentiment than by elite calculations over survival, immunity, and control. Strategically, the operation aligned with Donald Trump’s broader objective of reasserting U.S. primacy across the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela was treated as both a political challenge and a strategic asset. U.S. policy following the operation sought to curtail extra-hemispheric influence, reinforce American leadership throughout the Americas, and reshape regional alignment under clear U.S. dominance. Energy considerations were central to this approach. Venezuela holds an estimated 20 percent of global proven oil reserves, much of them previously inaccessible due to sanctions, mismanagement, and infrastructure decay. Securing favorable access to these reserves through a compliant post-Maduro authority, revised sanctions regimes, or restructured concessions carried significant implications for global energy markets and U.S. strategic leverage. In this context, Maduro’s removal functioned as a catalyst within a broader effort to reconfigure political control, economic access, and strategic balance across the Americas.
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