Facing debts it was no longer able to hide, the Greek government implemented a series of austerity measures in early 2010, attempting to bring its spending more in line with its tax income. Proposals included pay cuts for state employees, some tax raises, and a freeze on pensions.

The public response to these measures was chaos; massive protests involving tens of thousands of people, clogging the streets and effectively shutting down businesses and transport centers in Athens and Thessaloniki. While the majority of the demonstrations were relatively peaceful, angry youths started skirmishes with riot police, causing injuries and property damage.

What might seem at first to be a disproportionate reaction to objectively modest fiscal decisions has much deeper roots. Most Greeks regard their government as being corrupt and ineffectual; many seem to regard it as their patriotic duty to cheat on their taxes as much as possible. With a significant portion of the economy occurring in a tax-free, cash-only grey market, the government has been hard pressed to maintain a high level of services, leading to budget deficits. Due to European Union budget regulations (as well as local political machinations) these deficits were hidden for many years, allowing the nation to show a patina of health to the world.

Further complicating the issue is an oft-overlooked statistic that is nevertheless critical to determining a nation’s stability: youth unemployment. Overall employment in Greece is 8.3%, roughly in keeping with the Eurozone average. However, unemployment among those in their teens and early 20s is approximately 30%. Relative poverty, the feeling of powerlessness and simple boredom create an environment where the slightest spark can trigger youth riots as an expression of that pent-up anger. This has proven true again and again, regardless of time or culture. The spark can be economic or religious, a teenager shot by police or a restriction of University rights; the results are often identical. In cases where the youths are genuinely oppressed, this can lead to rapid social progress and the overthrow of tyranny. In many other cases, it simply leads to violence, economic disruption, and property damage. Greece itself has seen both extremes; in 1974, student riots helped kick off the movement that overthrew the military junta then ruling the country. In 2008, youths protesting police brutality specifically targeted businesses for arson and vandalism, as well as clashing with the police themselves.

Europe’s Plight

It would be easy to dismiss this as a Greek crisis. Partially to stave off panic and ensure the stability of the Euro, much of the conversation in Europe has focused around the specifics of the Greek problem; the deals made with U.S. finance giants to hide debt, poor fiscal responsibility, corruption. However, Greece is only the tip of the iceberg, reflecting inherent weaknesses in the current incarnation of the 16-nation Eurozone.

With 16 nations exclusively utilizing the same currency, the actions of one can have a deep and immediate effect on all the others. The Euro profits from the stability of Germany, suffers from the economic woes of Greece. And yet while it is clearly in Germany’s short term interest to stabilize Greece, it would set a dangerous precedent for other indebted Eurozone countries.

Where Next?

Many other European nations are also facing serious fiscal problems. Just on the immediate horizon, Spain, Ireland, and Italy all have high rates of either budget deficits, total debt, or both. France’s relatively balanced budget relies on notably optimistic predictions about its economic future; should those projections turn out to be less than accurate, it too could find itself in crisis.

In many of these countries, the economic woes have another dimension; racial tension. In boom times, countries are flooded with immigrants hoping to take advantage of readily available work. When times are bad, however, immigrants are frequently viewed as ‘stealing’ jobs from unemployed or underemployed citizens.

Unsurprisingly, the countries experiencing the worst of the economic problems also have the highest youth unemployment figures: Italy, Ireland, and France all have youth unemployment exceeding 25%. Spain’s is the highest in the G-20, at over 35%. During the 2008 Greek riots, youths in many of these countries had ‘sympathy’ riots resulting in the destruction of property and vandalism, underlining how common problems produced the same result, regardless of distance or culture.

With the variables of economic performance, youth unemployment and racial tensions in mind, certain countries are facing rapidly rising risk of mass civil disturbance: most notably Spain and Italy.

Spain

Spain’s economic recession has dragged on far beyond many other Eurozone countries, with the International Monetary Fund not predicting its end until 2011. Overall unemployment is nearing 20%, double the E.U. average. Its youth unemployment is a staggering 40%. Much like the United States, Spain profited from a housing boom in the earlier part of the decade, allowing its people to grow used to a higher standard of living, with increased government services and relatively low unemployment. Spain has responded to this crisis well, instituting jobs programs that, while increasing short-term debt, should significantly aid long-term fiscal viability and internal security. However as with all jobs programs, the money spent is immediate, while the economic impact could take years.

In the meantime, Spain faces the twin risks of unemployed youths and a substantial immigrant workforce. Even before the current economic troubles began, Spain saw sizable anti-immigrant protests and counter-protests. In 2000, anti-immigrant rioters burned down a recycling factory. January 2007 saw several violent clashes between Spanish and immigrant youth gangs in Madrid. In 2008, immigrants protesting poor living conditions and perceived abuses by non-immigrants clashed with police and set fire to homes.

Spain was also among the first countries to see sympathy riots in reaction to the 2008 youth rioting in Greece, with several hundred rioters damaging property and clashing with police.

Should Spain’s jobs program prove insufficient to rapidly sate both its increasingly unemployed youth and its large migrant population, it will face a significant risk of civil disturbance.

Italy

While its overall economic future is brighter, Italy is currently in a very similar situation as Greece; rising debt, a shrinking economy, and growing unemployment, mixed with a notoriously unstable government. With inflation on the rise, economic pressures are increasing, and the government is forced to respond with severe austerity measures.

Italy’s focus has been on preserving its banks and economic system, leading to widespread anger at the lack of emphasis on job creation. Thus far, the public has mainly expressed its anger via protests against the Berlusconi administration. Large unions have managed to effectively shut down the country for short periods of time, disrupting airports and other forms of transportation.

As with Spain, Italy’s immigrant workers have a history of rioting and protesting due to poor quality of living. In January 2010, immigrants in southern Italy rioted for two days after two of their number were allegedly shot with air guns by locals. Storefronts and vehicles were vandalized, and between the immigrant rioting and retaliatory attacks by locals, over 70 persons were injured. A mafia killing in 2008 triggered race riots near Naples, resulting in the destruction of vehicles and smashing of storefront windows. Chinese immigrants began a small riot in Milan in 2007, destroying a single vehicle and resulting in several injuries.

While the union strikes and protests have been largely peaceful, the risk in Italy stems from the harsh conflict between Italian youths and immigrants. Many of the above incidents were triggered by Italian youths attacking immigrants. As Italy’s economic woes result in more unemployed in both groups, attacks leading to mass violence are increasingly probable.

The Future

Borrowing from many an ancient philosopher, the British Security Service has a maxim: society is four meals away from anarchy. While this is obviously speaking to the extreme, it does underline the relationship between economic stability and domestic security. Regardless of how peaceful and civilized a culture might be today, economic hardship can in an instant expose fear and anger simmering under the surface of civilization. The young strike out at their elders, locals strike out at foreigners; a cycle of retaliation is all too easy to begin, and can take decades to end.

Any long-term solution to the European Union’s plight needs to take these factors into account; that the security and stability of Europe as a whole is deeply affected by its least stable member. Economically retreating into old borders might mean creating and exposing oneself to intractable problems in one’s neighbors. Until the E.U. begins making serious headway in the issues of immigrant-related racism and youth unemployment, even short-term economic troubles have the potential to cause widespread strikes, protests, and rioting.

 Facing debts it was no longer able to hide, the Greek government implemented a series of austerity measures in early 2010, attempting to bring its spending more in line with its tax income. Proposals included pay cuts for state employees, some tax raises, and a freeze on pensions.

The public response to these measures was chaos; massive protests involving tens of thousands of people, clogging the streets and effectively shutting down businesses and transport centers in Athens and Thessaloniki. While the majority of the demonstrations were relatively peaceful, angry youths started skirmishes with riot police, causing injuries and property damage.

What might seem at first to be a disproportionate reaction to objectively modest fiscal decisions has much deeper roots. Most Greeks regard their government as being corrupt and ineffectual; many seem to regard it as their patriotic duty to cheat on their taxes as much as possible. With a significant portion of the economy occurring in a tax-free, cash-only grey market, the government has been hard pressed to maintain a high level of services, leading to budget deficits. Due to European Union budget regulations (as well as local political machinations) these deficits were hidden for many years, allowing the nation to show a patina of health to the world.

Further complicating the issue is an oft-overlooked statistic that is nevertheless critical to determining a nation’s stability: youth unemployment. Overall employment in Greece is 8.3%, roughly in keeping with the Eurozone average. However, unemployment among those in their teens and early 20s is approximately 30%. Relative poverty, the feeling of powerlessness and simple boredom create an environment where the slightest spark can trigger youth riots as an expression of that pent-up anger. This has proven true again and again, regardless of time or culture. The spark can be economic or religious, a teenager shot by police or a restriction of University rights; the results are often identical. In cases where the youths are genuinely oppressed, this can lead to rapid social progress and the overthrow of tyranny. In many other cases, it simply leads to violence, economic disruption, and property damage. Greece itself has seen both extremes; in 1974, student riots helped kick off the movement that overthrew the military junta then ruling the country. In 2008, youths protesting police brutality specifically targeted businesses for arson and vandalism, as well as clashing with the police themselves.

Europe’s Plight

It would be easy to dismiss this as a Greek crisis. Partially to stave off panic and ensure the stability of the Euro, much of the conversation in Europe has focused around the specifics of the Greek problem; the deals made with U.S. finance giants to hide debt, poor fiscal responsibility, corruption. However, Greece is only the tip of the iceberg, reflecting inherent weaknesses in the current incarnation of the 16-nation Eurozone.

With 16 nations exclusively utilizing the same currency, the actions of one can have a deep and immediate effect on all the others. The Euro profits from the stability of Germany, suffers from the economic woes of Greece. And yet while it is clearly in Germany’s short term interest to stabilize Greece, it would set a dangerous precedent for other indebted Eurozone countries.

Where Next?

Many other European nations are also facing serious fiscal problems. Just on the immediate horizon, Spain, Ireland, and Italy all have high rates of either budget deficits, total debt, or both. France’s relatively balanced budget relies on notably optimistic predictions about its economic future; should those projections turn out to be less than accurate, it too could find itself in crisis.

In many of these countries, the economic woes have another dimension; racial tension. In boom times, countries are flooded with immigrants hoping to take advantage of readily available work. When times are bad, however, immigrants are frequently viewed as ‘stealing’ jobs from unemployed or underemployed citizens.

Unsurprisingly, the countries experiencing the worst of the economic problems also have the highest youth unemployment figures: Italy, Ireland, and France all have youth unemployment exceeding 25%. Spain’s is the highest in the G-20, at over 35%. During the 2008 Greek riots, youths in many of these countries had ‘sympathy’ riots resulting in the destruction of property and vandalism, underlining how common problems produced the same result, regardless of distance or culture.

With the variables of economic performance, youth unemployment and racial tensions in mind, certain countries are facing rapidly rising risk of mass civil disturbance: most notably Spain and Italy.

Spain

Spain’s economic recession has dragged on far beyond many other Eurozone countries, with the International Monetary Fund not predicting its end until 2011. Overall unemployment is nearing 20%, double the E.U. average. Its youth unemployment is a staggering 40%. Much like the United States, Spain profited from a housing boom in the earlier part of the decade, allowing its people to grow used to a higher standard of living, with increased government services and relatively low unemployment. Spain has responded to this crisis well, instituting jobs programs that, while increasing short-term debt, should significantly aid long-term fiscal viability and internal security. However as with all jobs programs, the money spent is immediate, while the economic impact could take years.

In the meantime, Spain faces the twin risks of unemployed youths and a substantial immigrant workforce. Even before the current economic troubles began, Spain saw sizable anti-immigrant protests and counter-protests. In 2000, anti-immigrant rioters burned down a recycling factory. January 2007 saw several violent clashes between Spanish and immigrant youth gangs in Madrid. In 2008, immigrants protesting poor living conditions and perceived abuses by non-immigrants clashed with police and set fire to homes.

Spain was also among the first countries to see sympathy riots in reaction to the 2008 youth rioting in Greece, with several hundred rioters damaging property and clashing with police.

Should Spain’s jobs program prove insufficient to rapidly sate both its increasingly unemployed youth and its large migrant population, it will face a significant risk of civil disturbance.

Italy

While its overall economic future is brighter, Italy is currently in a very similar situation as Greece; rising debt, a shrinking economy, and growing unemployment, mixed with a notoriously unstable government. With inflation on the rise, economic pressures are increasing, and the government is forced to respond with severe austerity measures.

Italy’s focus has been on preserving its banks and economic system, leading to widespread anger at the lack of emphasis on job creation. Thus far, the public has mainly expressed its anger via protests against the Berlusconi administration. Large unions have managed to effectively shut down the country for short periods of time, disrupting airports and other forms of transportation.

As with Spain, Italy’s immigrant workers have a history of rioting and protesting due to poor quality of living. In January 2010, immigrants in southern Italy rioted for two days after two of their number were allegedly shot with air guns by locals. Storefronts and vehicles were vandalized, and between the immigrant rioting and retaliatory attacks by locals, over 70 persons were injured. A mafia killing in 2008 triggered race riots near Naples, resulting in the destruction of vehicles and smashing of storefront windows. Chinese immigrants began a small riot in Milan in 2007, destroying a single vehicle and resulting in several injuries.

While the union strikes and protests have been largely peaceful, the risk in Italy stems from the harsh conflict between Italian youths and immigrants. Many of the above incidents were triggered by Italian youths attacking immigrants. As Italy’s economic woes result in more unemployed in both groups, attacks leading to mass violence are increasingly probable.

The Future

Borrowing from many an ancient philosopher, the British Security Service has a maxim: society is four meals away from anarchy. While this is obviously speaking to the extreme, it does underline the relationship between economic stability and domestic security. Regardless of how peaceful and civilized a culture might be today, economic hardship can in an instant expose fear and anger simmering under the surface of civilization. The young strike out at their elders, locals strike out at foreigners; a cycle of retaliation is all too easy to begin, and can take decades to end.

Any long-term solution to the European Union’s plight needs to take these factors into account; that the security and stability of Europe as a whole is deeply affected by its least stable member. Economically retreating into old borders might mean creating and exposing oneself to intractable problems in one’s neighbors. Until the E.U. begins making serious headway in the issues of immigrant-related racism and youth unemployment, even short-term economic troubles have the potential to cause widespread strikes, protests, and rioting.